Dashboard

Dashboard

Non-observed economy and economic security across regions.

Non-observed economy, 2025
26.9%−7.5 pp vs previous year
Informal sector
19.0%−7.5 pp vs previous year
Hidden economy
7.9%±0.0 pp vs previous year
Regions in critical zone
6 / 14share ≥ 40%
Unemployment rate
4.7%−0.8 pp vs previous year
Inflation (y/y), 2025
7.3%Policy rate: 14.0%

Regional distribution · 2025

Non-observed economy share, % of GRP

Republic of Karakalpakstan: 38.7 %Andijan Region: 35.9 %Bukhara Region: 39.6 %Jizzakh Region: 41.1 %Kashkadarya Region: 43.1 %Navoi Region: 13.1 %Namangan Region: 44.1 %Samarkand Region: 40.0 %Surkhandarya Region: 46.3 %Syrdarya Region: 33.2 %Tashkent Region: 26.5 %Fergana Region: 38.4 %Khorezm Region: 45.1 %Tashkent City: 19.1 %

Regional ranking

Non-observed, 2025

#RegionValueΔ yrZone
1Surkhandarya46.3−9.9
2Khorezm45.1−9.8
3Namangan44.1−8.9
4Kashkadarya43.1−9.9
5Jizzakh41.1−8.5
6Samarkand40.0−9.5
7Bukhara39.6−9.5
8Karakalpakstan38.7−8.3
9Fergana38.4−10.7
10Andijan35.9−9.7
11Syrdarya33.2−6.6
12Tashkent Reg.26.5−9.0
13Tashkent City19.1−6.1
14Navoi13.1−4.4

National trend

% of GDP

Non-observedInformalShadow
04812162024283236404448201720182019202020212022202320242025

Security zones over time

number of regions by NOE share thresholds

Within normAbove thresholdCritical
2017 · Above threshold: 22017 · Critical: 12172018 · Above threshold: 22018 · Critical: 12182019 · Above threshold: 32019 · Critical: 11192020 · Within norm: 12020 · Above threshold: 22020 · Critical: 11202021 · Above threshold: 32021 · Critical: 11212022 · Within norm: 12022 · Above threshold: 32022 · Critical: 10222023 · Above threshold: 42023 · Critical: 10232024 · Within norm: 12024 · Above threshold: 32024 · Critical: 10242025 · Within norm: 22025 · Above threshold: 62025 · Critical: 625
Kalina, Savelyeva (2014) · 6 critical · 6 above threshold · 2 within norm

Fiscal scale, 2025

Non-observed economy volume498.0 trn UZS
Informal351.0 trn UZS
Shadow147.0 trn UZS
State budget revenue359.8 trn UZS

The non-observed economy is 1.38× state budget revenue. This is not lost tax — it indicates tax-base potential.

Largest changes

Non-observed, 2017 → 2025, p.p.

Largest decline
Smallest decline

Data quality

  • 2024→2025: informal share fell 7.5 p.p. — a likely methodological break.
  • No official district data: districts inherit their region’s value.
  • Security indicators: 3 of 8 computed, the rest await data.
  • Some 2024–2025 values are preliminary.
0.79HIXI ↔ official share, Spearman ρ
0.46Panel regression, R² (within)
b=0.36Significant factor: small-business share
Methodology →