Dashboard
Non-observed economy and economic security across regions.
Non-observed economy, 2025
26.9%−7.5 pp vs previous yearInformal sector
19.0%−7.5 pp vs previous yearHidden economy
7.9%±0.0 pp vs previous yearRegions in critical zone
6 / 14share ≥ 40%Unemployment rate
4.7%−0.8 pp vs previous yearInflation (y/y), 2025
7.3%Policy rate: 14.0%Regional distribution · 2025
Non-observed economy share, % of GRP
1366%
Full map →Regional ranking
Non-observed, 2025
| # | Region | Value | Δ yr | 2017–25 | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Surkhandarya | 46.3 | −9.9 | Critical | |
| 2 | Khorezm | 45.1 | −9.8 | Critical | |
| 3 | Namangan | 44.1 | −8.9 | Critical | |
| 4 | Kashkadarya | 43.1 | −9.9 | Critical | |
| 5 | Jizzakh | 41.1 | −8.5 | Critical | |
| 6 | Samarkand | 40.0 | −9.5 | Critical | |
| 7 | Bukhara | 39.6 | −9.5 | Above threshold | |
| 8 | Karakalpakstan | 38.7 | −8.3 | Above threshold | |
| 9 | Fergana | 38.4 | −10.7 | Above threshold | |
| 10 | Andijan | 35.9 | −9.7 | Above threshold | |
| 11 | Syrdarya | 33.2 | −6.6 | Above threshold | |
| 12 | Tashkent Reg. | 26.5 | −9.0 | Above threshold | |
| 13 | Tashkent City | 19.1 | −6.1 | Within norm | |
| 14 | Navoi | 13.1 | −4.4 | Within norm |
National trend
% of GDP
Non-observedInformalShadow
Source: SIAT 1.01.08.0010, 1.01.08.0011
Security zones over time
number of regions by NOE share thresholds
Within normAbove thresholdCritical
Kalina, Savelyeva (2014) · 6 critical · 6 above threshold · 2 within norm
Fiscal scale, 2025
Non-observed economy volume498.0 trn UZS
Informal351.0 trn UZS
Shadow147.0 trn UZS
State budget revenue359.8 trn UZS
The non-observed economy is 1.38× state budget revenue. This is not lost tax — it indicates tax-base potential.
Largest changes
Non-observed, 2017 → 2025, p.p.
Largest decline
Smallest decline
Data quality
- 2024→2025: informal share fell 7.5 p.p. — a likely methodological break.
- No official district data: districts inherit their region’s value.
- Security indicators: 3 of 8 computed, the rest await data.
- Some 2024–2025 values are preliminary.
0.79HIXI ↔ official share, Spearman ρ
0.46Panel regression, R² (within)
b=0.36Significant factor: small-business share