Policy simulator
Two layers: exact arithmetic (no causal claim) and an empirical association (with a confidence interval). Each result shows its formula or coefficient.
1 · Formalisation scenario — national, 2025 base
Scenario20%base: 147.0 trn UZS · 7.9 % of GDP
10%base: 351.0 trn UZS · 19.0 % of GDP
19.4%19.4% = 359.8 / 1,851 trn UZS
Additional budget revenue12.5trn UZS3.5% of revenue (2025)
Shadow economy share6.4%2030 target ≈ 4.0% · gap 2.4 pp
Non-observed share23.4%now 26.9 % of GDP
Δ = (s·147.0 + f·351.0) × r = (20%·147.0 + 10%·351.0) × 19.4% = 64.5 × 19.4% = 12.5 trn UZS
The actual burden on informal households may be below average, so this is an upper bound. Formalisation does not raise GDP: this value is already included in it. Statistika qo‘mitasi, 2025 kuzatilmaydigan iqtisodiyot (kun.uz) · Davlat byudjeti 2025, kutilayotgan ijro (spot.uz) · 2030 maqsadlari (gov.uz)
2 · Levers and the non-observed share — region
Empirical estimatePanel regression: 14 regions × 2017–2025, region and year fixed effects, region-clustered errors. The result is an association coefficient, not an effect.
+2.0 pp64.8% (2025)
-3 pp76.4% (2025)
5%46% / republic
Expected change+0.2ppNon-observed
95% confidence interval−3.2 … +3.7includes zero — no reliable conclusion
Surkhandarya, 202546.3 → 46.5%central estimate
| Factor | β | 95% | Δx | β·Δx | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Employment rate, pp | 0.29 | -0.16 … 0.73 | 2.0 | +0.57 | not significant |
| Derived unemployment, pp | -0.32 | -1.80 … 1.17 | -2.9 | +0.93 | not significant |
| ln(relative GRP/cap.) | -3.85 | -11.19 … 3.48 | 0.049 | −0.19 | not significant |
| Small-business share, pp | 0.36 | 0.07 … 0.64 | -3.0 | −1.07 | significant |
R²within = 0.46 · n = 126 · 14 clusters. Only the small-business coefficient differs from zero. 14 clusters is few, so errors may be understated; endogeneity is not controlled. SIAT 1.01.08.