Economic security thresholds
Each region’s indicators are compared with threshold values from the literature: within norm, above threshold, or critical.
Non-observed economy share: regions × years
Threshold 20%, critical level 40% of GRP. Cells show the value.
Within norm · < 20%Above threshold · 20–40%Critical · ≥ 40%
| Region | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republic | 45.6 | 41.6 | 38.9 | 37.3 | 36.9 | 34.6 | 34.5 | 34.4 | 26.9 |
| Surkhandarya | 65.9 | 64.1 | 59.9 | 57.3 | 56.8 | 55.6 | 55.8 | 56.2 | 46.3 |
| Khorezm | 62.4 | 61.2 | 57.4 | 56.7 | 55.8 | 53.0 | 53.5 | 54.9 | 45.1 |
| Namangan | 63.4 | 60.1 | 57.5 | 56.2 | 54.7 | 52.9 | 52.7 | 53.0 | 44.1 |
| Kashkadarya | 59.9 | 58.2 | 56.0 | 56.8 | 55.0 | 52.2 | 52.7 | 53.0 | 43.1 |
| Jizzakh | 64.2 | 63.3 | 57.4 | 55.4 | 54.2 | 50.3 | 49.0 | 49.6 | 41.1 |
| Samarkand | 57.5 | 56.6 | 53.8 | 51.3 | 51.3 | 48.4 | 49.4 | 49.5 | 40.0 |
| Bukhara | 61.0 | 60.3 | 53.9 | 54.7 | 52.8 | 48.5 | 49.2 | 49.1 | 39.6 |
| Karakalpakstan | 51.6 | 46.9 | 43.1 | 43.2 | 41.4 | 41.5 | 45.0 | 47.0 | 38.7 |
| Fergana | 59.5 | 55.9 | 51.5 | 49.5 | 49.3 | 47.8 | 48.1 | 49.1 | 38.4 |
| Andijan | 64.5 | 56.4 | 53.0 | 50.3 | 51.3 | 46.3 | 45.9 | 45.6 | 35.9 |
| Syrdarya | 55.5 | 52.0 | 45.9 | 44.8 | 43.2 | 38.5 | 39.3 | 39.8 | 33.2 |
| Tashkent Reg. | 49.6 | 43.0 | 37.5 | 35.9 | 35.4 | 33.7 | 35.7 | 35.5 | 26.5 |
| Tashkent City | 34.0 | 31.1 | 29.0 | 27.9 | 26.4 | 25.6 | 23.4 | 25.2 | 19.1 |
| Navoi | 37.3 | 32.7 | 25.2 | 19.1 | 20.1 | 19.6 | 20.4 | 17.5 | 13.1 |
Source: SIAT 1.01.08.0010 + 1.01.08.0011 (Non-observed = Informal + Shadow); Threshold — Kalina, Savelyeva (2014).
Derived unemployment rate, 2025
Threshold 8%. All regions are below it.
Jizzakh5.0
Namangan5.0
Fergana5.0
Karakalpakstan4.9
Kashkadarya4.9
Surkhandarya4.9
Syrdarya4.9
Tashkent Reg.4.8
Andijan4.8
Samarkand4.8
Khorezm4.7
Bukhara4.7
Navoi4.2
Tashkent City4.0
8%10%0
Threshold values
| Indicator | Threshold | Critical | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Non-observed (shadow) economy, % of GRP | ≤ 20 | 40 | Applied |
| Unemployment rate, % | ≤ 8 | — | Applied |
| Inflation, % | 0–6 | — | Data pending |
| Decile ratio, times | 6–12 | — | Data pending |
| Poverty rate, % | ≤ 7 | — | Data pending |
| Fixed capital investment, % of GDP | ≥ 40 | — | Data pending |
| Budget deficit, % of GDP | ≤ 4 | — | Data pending |
| External debt, % of GDP | ≤ 25 | — | Data pending |
Thresholds were compiled from the literature for Russia and its regions. Uzbekistan has no officially approved thresholds; the platform uses them as analytical benchmarks. Source: threshold 20%, critical level 40–50%. The platform uses the lower bound (40%) as critical.