Macro & monetary

Macroeconomic and monetary indicators

Central Bank and Statistics Committee data. National level; no regional breakdown.

Policy rate14.0%Decision 04.11.2026
Inflation (y/y), 09/266.4%Target: 5% · above threshold
Core inflation5.5%09/26
Real rate+7.6%rate − inflation, calc
Household expectations8.7%next 12 months
Business expectations9.2%next 12 months

Monthly inflation

year-on-year, %; core excludes regulated and seasonal items

Inflation (y/y)Core inflation
02468101202/2505/2508/2511/2502/2605/2609/266%
Security threshold (Kalina, Savelyeva): inflation ≤ 6%. Applied at national level. · Source: cbu.uz

Exchange rates

Official Central Bank rate

USD…
EUR…
RUB…
cbu.uz

Inflation and policy rate, 2017–2025

Dec/Dec inflation and end-of-year rate, %

Inflation (y/y)Policy rate
04812162017201820192020202120222023202420256%

Link to the shadow economy: high inflation and cash demand favour informal activity — a hypothesis to be tested with the currency-demand method.

Source: SIAT 1.11.01.0009; policy rate — CBU

Policy rate decisions

Next meeting: 16.12.2026

  1. 03/2514.0%+0.5 pp ↗
  2. 07/2413.5%−0.5 pp ↗
  3. 03/2314.0%−1.0 pp ↗
  4. 07/2215.0%−1.0 pp ↗
  5. 06/2216.0%−1.0 pp ↗
  6. 03/2217.0%+3.0 pp ↗
  7. 09/2014.0%−1.0 pp ↗
  8. 04/2015.0%−1.0 pp ↗
  9. 09/1816.0%+2.0 pp ↗
  10. 06/1714.0%— ↗
2026 forecast: 7% (was 6.5%) · GDP growth, 9 months: 8.3% · kun.uz, spot.uz